Are there any data or studies that we could look to to learn more about this? I'd be interested, but the only insect toxicology studies I could find were involving cinnamon oil (which we don't use) and wood vinegar (which is quite different from just diluted acetic acid or ACV).
You just had me digging back into the archives of Dendroboard looking for the original post from @2008, yes the studies use the oils from cinnamon but you can also calculate out the amount of cinnamon required to supply that concentration of oils. It was one of the occasions where I unfortunately didn't post the math but the values for the oil working as a antifungal came from Bullerman, L. B., F. Y. Lieu, and Sally A. Seier. "Inhibition of growth and aflatoxin production by cinnamon and clove oils. Cinnamic aldehyde and eugenol." Journal of Food Science 42.4 (1977): 1107-1109.
If remember correctly this is the reference from where I got the ld50 values I extrapolated for toxicity of the flies,
Mondal, Mina. "Toxicity of essential oils against red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Herbst)(Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae)."
Journal of Bio-Science 14 (2006): 43-48.
The two groups of molds we tend to see most frequently are Aspergillus niger and Penicillin sp of which A. niger as part of it's colonization of the culture acidifies the media potentially down below a pH of 2 which is below the threshold of survival for fruit flies.
See Andersen, Mikael R., Linda Lehmann, and Jens Nielsen. "Systemic analysis of the response of Aspergillus niger to ambient pH."
Genome biology 10.5 (2009): 1-14.
As for the protection from fungal growth from the acetate that depends on the strain as some strains of A. niger can use acetate as a nutrient while others show inhibition or poor growth.
Low pH can also have a negative effect on the flies (I no longer have access so going off memory)
The Effect of Resource pH on Pupation Height in Drosophila (Diptera: Drosophilidae)
Journal of Insect Behavior, 1998, Volume 11, Number
If I have to I can repeat the process for Penicillium and try to recreate my thoughts from 2008 but it might have to wait for a day I feel better and that I no longer have access to many papers and journals.
As for baking and yeast, yes cinnamon is frequently used but the solidity of bread dough is very different structurally than the fly cultures. Think about the structure of bread particularly once it has developed the targeted amount of gluten versus the cultures... Cultures are much more fluid whole the goal of the gluten is to create a structure that retains CO2...
Some comments
Ed